Extremal Film Partners

Extremal Film Partners offers film makers a guaranteed box office revenue for their films. Its contract clears on box office revenues and is completely transparent to investors. Producers can obtain distribution under the Extremal contract because they are guaranteed a minimum box office revenue. We follow a rigorous statistical modeling procedure that treats each film as a unique prospect --- distribution of probabilities and outcomes. Extremal purchases the swaps it writes for the Extremal Film Fund, which is planned to have $150 million in initial funding. The first graphic above shows the probability distribution of outcomes of a 100-film fund. The mean of this distribution is $591 million, including the initial seed of $150 million. The 10-th, 25-th, 50-th, 75-th, and 90-th quantiles are $431M, $505M, $589M, $675M, and $756M. The second graphic shows the stochastic evolution of 1000 100-film funds.